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Comments by DerekNalls

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Derek Nalls wrote on Tue, Jun 15, 2010 07:59 PM UTC:
Now, I am getting the correct result.

With the proper weighted average profit considered (which is much lower
than the actual average profit), it requires 1950-1951 successful,
consecutive uses (on average) of this betting scheme to double your money
while it requires only 1100-1101 uses to reach a 50% risk of busting and
losing all of your money.

As a double-or-nothing bet, there is a 70.72% chance of ending-up with
nothing.

Derek Nalls wrote on Wed, Jun 16, 2010 02:18 PM UTC:
'You bet on one number, and when you lose, (the typical result), you do
what? Increase the bet?'

Yes.

It is a 'negative progression' betting scheme where (by definition) you
raise the bet after losses to recover them if you win.  This one advances
as slowly as possible, with minimal profits, in order for your cash stakes,
within limits of the lowest and highest allowed bets, to last as many spins
as possible without busting.  In this manner, risk is minimized.

The paper, now 40 pages, was substantially revised late June 15 to include
the calculation of a weighted average profit.  Accordingly, I now classify
this betting scheme as a highly negative investment and advise that it
should never be used.

This can be regarded as just another mathematical demonstration of the
folly of gambling.  [At least, with games of pure luck and no element of
skill.]

[Subject Thread] [Add Response]
Derek Nalls wrote on Sat, Jan 8, 2011 07:37 PM UTC:
Facebook
http://www.facebook.com

It's a good way for some of us to stay in communication with one another.

[Subject Thread] [Add Response]
Derek Nalls wrote on Mon, Jan 10, 2011 02:31 PM UTC:
I disagree.

[Subject Thread] [Add Response]
Derek Nalls wrote on Sun, Jan 23, 2011 01:41 PM UTC:
Three Dimensional Chess
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-dimensional_chess

ALL external links to 3-D chess variants that do not already have their own
Wikipedia pages have been deleted by a high-ranking editor 'MrOllie' who
apparently knows nothing about this subject.  He is incorrectly applying
two Wikipedia guidelines to justify his wholesale destructive action:

external links
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:EL

neutral point of view
due & undue weight
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:UNDUE#Undue_weight

Essentially, the current state of the article is that it only mentions or
even, references Raumschach, (Star Trek) Tri-Dimensional Chess, Cubic Chess
and Dragonchess.  The existence of all other 3-D chess variants has been
gutted from the literature.
 
Unfortunately, ordinary editors rarely win a dispute, regardless of right &
wrong, against high-ranking editors at Wikipedia unless an overwhelming
number of experts make their views known as editors.  I intend to.

Derek Nalls wrote on Sun, Jan 23, 2011 11:56 PM UTC:
I also largely agree with the direction (and condition) of this article.
It is only the purging of ALL external links to individual 3-D chess
variants that I take exception to.  Admittedly, I have a conflict of
interest since I invented 'Spherical Chess 400'- one of the casualties of
this recent edit.  This is the reason I would rather not get personally
involved in an edit war on this Wikipedia page.  In other words, I would
prefer someone else (who is plausibly neutral) to do it.

Please understand that I realize my game does not meet the notability
requirements for direct mention in this article?  However, a single
reference to my game's web site in the 'Other variants of
three-dimensional chess' sub-category of 'External links' is appropriate
and unassuming.  A couple of other quality game web sites (that were
purged) merit a single reference as well.  I suspect 'MrOllie' simply
saved time by NOT examining them at all on a case-by-case basis ...
although as an editor, he should have.

The link to The Chess Variant Page's directory of 3-D games is certainly a
positive attribute for the article but unnecessarily, too indirect.

[Subject Thread] [Add Response]
Derek Nalls wrote on Mon, May 23, 2011 01:41 PM UTC:
universal calculation of piece values
http://www.symmetryperfect.com/shots/texts/calc.pdf
See pages 42-49.

This is my incomplete effort to, amongst others matters, achieve a
quantitative, theoretical explanation for the counter-intuitively high
value of the archbishop in CRC that was first brought to my attention by
Muller's experiments.  However, the meaningful context of the select pages
referenced will not be fully comprehensible without reading the entire
65-page paper.  

Anyone is free to create variations of my work with refinements of a
different nature and/or extend my work toward something truly
'universal'.  In any case, I am convinced that its holistic framework of
theory, terminology, factors and calculation has lasting value.

I own two fast servers now yet I devote both of their CPU times exclusively
to the possibly-futile SETI project.  Sorry, no playtesting or piece value
experiments anymore.

[Subject Thread] [Add Response]
Derek Nalls wrote on Mon, May 23, 2011 01:51 PM UTC:
The moderator(s) are asleep.  After a Yahoo mishap, I wish to (re)Join this
group.  Thank you!

[Subject Thread] [Add Response]
Derek Nalls wrote on Mon, May 23, 2011 10:45 PM UTC:
Yes, I agree with Muller's observation that the archbishop is unusually
effective against pawn formations in CRC, like no other piece in the game. 
Moreover, I find your description of pawns as obstacles that create a
terrain, usually through the length of a game, insightful and interesting. 
Unfortunately, valid observations and descriptions often do not have a
practical use toward quantitative calculation within a theory.

The approach I use within my theory is analogous to describing basic
chemistry strictly in terms of atoms and never mentioning molecules even as
I find myself in agreement with abstract observations by experts regarding
molecules.  In other words, I stick exclusively to basic terms and easily
calculated factors to achieve results that roughly correspond to measured,
established piece values.

Derek Nalls wrote on Mon, May 23, 2011 11:16 PM UTC:
JL:  You have a lot of imaginative and critical ideas on the subject of
piece values.  Firstly, I have a couple of constructive recommendations.

1.  Read my entire 65-page paper.  Work with it until you understand it. 
[At least, in theory.  Preferably, in calculation.]  Then, you will be
enabled to intelligently revise (and greatly shorten, I am confident) your
list of valid objections and problems you find with its theoretical
framework.

2.  Create your own theory of the 'Universal calculation of piece
values'
(or whatever you consider appropriate to entitle it) that is roughly
consistent with measured, established piece values in FRC & CRC.
________________________________________________

Note that if your work is not substantially shorter than mine at appr. 65
pages, then it has nonetheless failed to achieve the supremely-important,
comparative advantage demanded by Occam's Razor- essentially, to produce
a
simpler or more elegant model that fully accounts for reality.  This would
render your theory highly suspect of being comparatively, unnecessarily
overcomplicated ... despite how much you favored it or how hard you worked
on it.  Be mindful that the more factors you explicitly accommodate and
calculate within your theory, the longer you make it.  So, it is
critically
important to be as discerning as possible about what is and is not
non-trivially efficacious to measured piece values.  [In other words,
leave
the rest of your observations and details in your private file notes, not
your public, published work.]

...  

Finally, I should emphasize that my theory is primarily a workable
framework of calculation for FRC & CRC piece values and secondarily (by a
vast amount) an explanation of the concepts considered important enough to
merit calculation as factors.  So, I actually have little interest in
semantic arguments about these concepts with anyone.  Besides, if you
convinced me that the concepts I use to calculate are invalid, then my
calculations would be thrust into gross inaccuracy against measurable,
indisputable reality.  I prefer to keep my calculations consistent with
established piece values in FRC worldwide and in CRC (esp. Muller's
experiments).

Hint:  It is more important for criticisms to be very well thought through
than original works because original works are harder and more
time-consuming to create from scratch.  Typically, I notice a lot more
sloppy, fast hellraising by trolls than conscientious work.

Derek Nalls wrote on Tue, May 24, 2011 05:48 AM UTC:
'Then your theory is utterly devoid of value.'

Do you really expect me to believe you miraculously know that
for certain when you haven't even read the vast majority of it?  
Therefore, your opinion must be, by your own admission, 
uninformed...   

In my (informed) opinion, the theory is of marginal value.  
Nonetheless, it is one of very few as well as possibly the best 
neatly-organized and written work in existence even though 
I am dis-satisfied with it since it has insufficient predictive 
value across a range of unrelated chess variants.  Specifically,
it is only proven to work well with games closely related to FRC.  
I consider this work a valuable, useful resource to anyone in 
the chess variant community who is working to devise a better 
theory than mine and appropriately, I will continue to make it 
available.
________________________________________________

'If it produces trustworthy results only for the values we already 
know and does not even provide a believable explanation for 
why those values should be what they are, then it fails even to 
confirm what we already know, let alone tell us anything new.'

Trustworthy results cannot be recognized as such wherever 
piece values are unknown.  Yet piece values are currently 
reasonably well established only in FRC & CRC.  So, 
the obstacles to creating an accurate, universal theory are 
formidable ... if not overwhelming.

To the contrary!  I find the theoretical explanations for the 
concepts that are used in calculation within my theory quite 
believable and even, compelling.  ...
___________________________________

'I am happy to read a 65-page document, or even longer, 
if a short sample or synopsis suggests it to be worth reading.'

...

When offered a usable framework for piece value calculation 
that only requires arithmetic (some of it based upon plane 
geometry), you avoid it ...
______________________________________________

'The sample of your work (selected by you) that I read 
suggested your ideas are poorly-explained, ill-justified, 
and at times directly contradictory with observed facts.'

Why don't you just admit you got lost and didn't understand 
the excerpt you read and furthermore, admit you were 
mistaken to recklessly disregard my follow-up advice to read 
the entire paper?
______________________________________________________

'It looks like you simply made up arbitrary modifiers in order to 
get the quantitative results you were expecting, which is just a 
way of lying with numbers.'

Concepts well known to chess variant theorists (and generally
agreed with as being relevant except by radicals) are what 
drive the piece value calculations.

Mathematical modelling can also be a way of telling the truth 
with numbers (which is my mission).  I am aware of its dangers 
and limitations but I pity any [one] who thinks he/she can 
possibly devise a successful piece value theory that contradicts 
important established, measurable, experimental results.

Again and again ... no idea what you are talking 
about!  Why?  Because you have not read the paper.
That exemplifies why I recommended that you read the paper.
In the absence of information, you are just ... compounding 
your errors and misconceptions about it.
_____________________________________

'... and that you have no interest in a theory with actual 
predictive or explanatory power.'

I have strong interest in and preference for a theory with 
predictive and explanatory power.  Unfortunately, noone has 
successfully devised it yet.
________________________

'... And suggesting that I need to have my own universal theory 
of piece values in order to critique yours is ... not how criticism 
works in ANY field.'

I never stated or meant that writing your own theory is a 
prerequisite to critiquing mine ... but reading mine is.
I rightly place very little value in knee-jerk reactions ...

The point of my previous message was not using any unfair 
exclusivist arguments against you.  I was just trying to 
encourage you to create something constructive and giving 
sound advice ...

Do your homework!  
Then, we can talk ... about my theory.

[Subject Thread] [Add Response]
Derek Nalls wrote on Thu, Jul 7, 2011 02:12 PM UTC:
Any chance of getting editorial intervention to stop and delete this
thread.  It is cluttering-up the new comment board.  Any significance would
be of a purely superstitious nature.  I just don't care what was being
written exactly 1-3-5-10 years ago and I doubt anyone else does (except
George Duke).

[Subject Thread] [Add Response]
Derek Nalls wrote on Thu, Jul 7, 2011 06:53 PM UTC:
Have mercy!  This just keeps getting worse.

Derek Nalls wrote on Thu, Jul 7, 2011 06:55 PM UTC:
Does anyone even know (much less, care) what was happening 500 years ago to
the day in the chess variant community?

Concise Guide to Chess Variants. Missing description[All Comments] [Add Comment or Rating]
Derek Nalls wrote on Wed, Dec 28, 2011 03:50 PM UTC:Excellent ★★★★★
Superb organization and presentation of a lot of material. It must have taken you a long time.

[Subject Thread] [Add Response]
Derek Nalls wrote on Sun, Feb 12, 2012 04:26 PM UTC:
In a correspondence, L. Lynn Smith once wrote to me that some inventors
lacked imagination, that all they ever introduced were 'variants of
Chess' instead of 'chess variants' in the sense of infinite
possibilities.  Unfortunately, if the only mental limitation the people you
had trouble with was a lack of imagination, they should be pleased for
someone talented or insightful to happen into their midst who has
imagination.  Apparently, quite the contrary!  

I think people who have devoted an extreme amount of effort into trying to
master a specific game usually have an overwhelming tendency to feel
threatened by anyone who recommends ANY rule change, regardless of its
merits, because its complex ramifications would change the game throughout
and eradicate most/some of what they have learned.

On Designing Good Chess Variants. Design goals and design principles for creating Chess variants.[All Comments] [Add Comment or Rating]
Derek Nalls wrote on Sat, Feb 18, 2012 07:48 PM UTC:
Although I regard Muller's list of seven desirable conditions as an excellent guideline (on most points, in my opinion) for being conducive to the possibly of creating a high-quality chess variant (which is pertinent to the title of this thread), the present question as to what defines a chess variant yields fewer conditions.

Generally, if a game has a board (2-D or 3-D) with spaces (e.g., square, 
triangular or hexagonal in 2-D), some (not necessarily all) mobile pieces
that occupy those spaces, a turn-based move order [Note:  I've never been able to successfully devise a simultaneous move game.] implying two or more players and a winning condition, it is a chess variant.  Even capturing (by various means) is not mandatory to this definition.  Also, having different piece types and abundances is not mandatory although both are strongly advisable since a lack of variety diminishes tactical depth.

So, chess variants actually include many classes of games that are not popularly classified as such.  For example:  connection games, war games, checkers variants, shogi variants, ultima variants, etc.  Furthermore, the hybrid usage of dice, cards, etc to render the overall game one of imperfect information is not prohibited.

Derek Nalls wrote on Sat, Feb 18, 2012 09:54 PM UTC:
'It seems you want to erode the meaning of 'Chess variant', to become synonymous for 'board game'.'

I don't have any 'want' whatsoever, in this case.

No.

Any one-player board game such as a puzzle or solitary connection game is definitely not a chess variant.  Therefore, chess variants, even by the most holistic, responsible definition, are merely a subset of board games.
_______________________________

'I think it is very good to have language where you can make a distinction between Chess (variants), Checkers (variants), Go (variants) etc.'

I agree that distinctions in language are useful.  I also think it is equally important to recognize overwhelming similarities that are often overlooked, disregarded or trivialized.

Derek Nalls wrote on Sun, Feb 19, 2012 05:23 PM UTC:
DH: I highly approve of your system of classification with points. I am left wondering ... Would you please define the term 'chess variants' point-wise relative to the other terms 'chess game', 'chess-like game' and 'chess-related game'? Are all of these other terms intended to be subcategories of 'chess variants'?

$250 GC Tourney[Subject Thread] [Add Response]
Derek Nalls wrote on Mon, Mar 19, 2012 03:26 PM UTC:
Don't you?

First move advantage in Western Chess - why does it exist?[Subject Thread] [Add Response]
Derek Nalls wrote on Tue, Aug 7, 2012 04:00 PM UTC:
In Chess, white has the privilege of choosing his/her favorite, strongest
opening playing offense for the game every time.  By contrast, black must
adapt to whatever opening white uses which is not likely to be his/her
favorite, strongest opening playing defense.  That is only one reason. 
There are others.

Derek Nalls wrote on Tue, Aug 7, 2012 09:22 PM UTC:
I hold the opinion that in Chess, a game with a significant
first-move-of-the-game advantage for white, it is a win for white with
perfect play.  [Unfortunately, Chess will be intractable to computer AI
solutions of this nature for a very long time to come.]  Checkers is a
chess variant (by broad definition) also having a white-black turn order
where it has been proven to be a draw with perfect play.  However, checkers
cannot move more than one space per turn (except when jumping enemy
pieces).  In Chess, a bishop (for example) may move up to seven spaces from
where it rests in one turn if it has a clear path.  This is comparable to
seven consecutive turns in Checkers.  That is why I doubt the same result
will eventually be discovered for both games with perfect play.

Derek Nalls wrote on Tue, Aug 7, 2012 09:30 PM UTC:
Please do not misconstrue the following remark to imply that any move
within a game of Chess is unimportant?  However, the very first move in a
game (by white) is the most important one and all subsequent moves have
slightly, progressively diminishing importance.  This is another clue.

Derek Nalls wrote on Wed, Aug 8, 2012 08:47 PM UTC:
"The first move in a game of Chess isn't even CLOSE to the most important
one in a typical game."

Obviously, additional explanation of my meaning is needed.

In terms of a chain of events leading to a final outcome ...
the first (a move, in the topic under discussion) is always 
the most important because it has a determinative effect 
upon not just itself (as the last move of the game does) 
but all (moves) that follow.  Even though the very first move
of the game (by white) is not the most exciting,
it (moreso than any other move) determines the course of the
game as defined by its unique move list.

In Chess, where a strict white-black turn order exists, 
all hypothetical talk of non-existent double-move options is
completely irrelevant.

"I also see no particular reason to think that a Bishop moving 7 squares
has equivalent value to taking 7 consecutive moves in a game of
checkers--but if it were true, that would seem to severely undermine your
theory that the first move in Chess is the most important one, since no
piece can 
move farther than 2 squares on the first turn."

Technically, you have one point that should be addressed.

No.  White cannot move any piece of unlimited range on the 
first move of the game.  However, by advancing an appropriate 
pawn on the first move, white can then move a queen or bishop 
diagonally on the second move of the game.  [Note:  I don't
recommend actually doing so.]

The important point is the equal burden of development by 
white and black does not diminish the significant, measurable
first-move-of-the-game advantage by white in Chess which 
undeniably exists and is all-but-proven statistically via a 
vast number of reasonably well played games.  After all, 
white has a head start toward this development.

Derek Nalls wrote on Wed, Aug 8, 2012 10:02 PM UTC:
"If I told you we were discussing "value" rather than "importance",
would that short-circuit this loop and get us back on topic?"

First of all, that's a loaded question, but the answer is NO.
Whichever term you prefer, value or importance, is fine with me.

If I told you that appr. 50,000 years ago, the only homo sapiens 
on Earth were a small number in East Africa (probably, black) 
and that some of the things they did which by objective, modern 
standards seem relatively unimportant were actually important 
toward determining the present state of the entire human race, 
would you fail completely to follow my reasoning?

The first event in a cause-effect chain is always supremely important.
Do you know what the butterfly effect is?

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