💡📝Sam Trenholme wrote on Thu, Oct 8, 2009 06:09 PM UTC:
As noted here, White has, with the Joker80 engine, about an 8% edge, regardless of the time control used. Here is a breakdown of the first move made by White and White’s subsequent win/loss/draw ratio when we play 40-moves-in-4-second games:
f3 Win: 51.462% Loss: 35.0877% draw 13.4503% Total 171
c4 Win: 48.5075% Loss: 38.0597% draw 13.4328% Total 134
c3 Win: 47.6923% Loss: 38.4615% draw 13.8462% Total 130
e4 Win: 46.9965% Loss: 40.636% draw 12.3675% Total 283
f4 Win: 45.6522% Loss: 43.1159% draw 11.2319% Total 276
h3 Win: 41.6667% Loss: 50% draw 8.33333% Total 12
Total Win: 47.6143% Loss: 39.8608% draw 12.5249% Total 1006
Here is the same chart when we give Joker80 90 seconds to play 40 moves (per side):
j3 Win: 100% Loss: 0% draw 0% Total 2
f4 Win: 54.7945% Loss: 31.5068% draw 13.6986% Total 73
e3 Win: 53.8462% Loss: 46.1538% draw 0% Total 13
c4 Win: 48.1663% Loss: 36.6748% draw 15.1589% Total 409
f3 Win: 47.4576% Loss: 45.7627% draw 6.77966% Total 59
e4 Win: 46.9444% Loss: 40.8333% draw 12.2222% Total 360
c3 Win: 42.5926% Loss: 42.5926% draw 14.8148% Total 54
g4 Win: 36.3636% Loss: 63.6364% draw 0% Total 11
h3 Win: 31.5789% Loss: 52.6316% draw 15.7895% Total 19
b3 Win: 0% Loss: 100% draw 0% Total 1
g3 Win: 0% Loss: 100% draw 0% Total 1
Total Win: 47.505% Loss: 39.4212% draw 13.0739% Total 1002
So, the question is, can Black equalize if we give him a small opening book?
It would appear he may be able to.
For example, I have had my computer play a lot of 40-moves-in-16-seconds games, starting with either 1. e4 d5 or 1. e4 d5 2. exd5 Nb6 (here, White can not hold on to the pawn). Here are the results:
e4-d5-exd5-Ad6 Win: 100% Loss: 0% draw 0% Total 1
e4-d5-exd5-f6 Win: 55.6604% Loss: 33.0189% draw 11.3208% Total 106
e4-d5-exd5-f5 Win: 54.1353% Loss: 37.594% draw 8.27068% Total 133
e4-d5-exd5-Nb6 Win: 45.4765% Loss: 41.9783% draw 12.5452% Total 1658
Total Win: 46.6807% Loss: 41.1486% draw 12.1707% Total 1898
We can see that, with this defense, we reduce White’s advantage after playing 1. e4 from around 6.5% to around 3.5%, helping equalize the game for Black; Joker80 doesn’t do any reply besides exd5 after 1. e4 d5.
My theory is that we can find equalizing replies for Black to other White first moves in the Schoolbook opening array. For example, preliminary research suggest that the position after 1. f4 c5 strongly favors Black (but I’m putting this line of research on hold because I’m currently playing a Game Courier game with this opening).
It would appear he may be able to.
For example, I have had my computer play a lot of 40-moves-in-16-seconds games, starting with either 1. e4 d5 or 1. e4 d5 2. exd5 Nb6 (here, White can not hold on to the pawn). Here are the results:
We can see that, with this defense, we reduce White’s advantage after playing 1. e4 from around 6.5% to around 3.5%, helping equalize the game for Black; Joker80 doesn’t do any reply besides exd5 after 1. e4 d5.My theory is that we can find equalizing replies for Black to other White first moves in the Schoolbook opening array. For example, preliminary research suggest that the position after 1. f4 c5 strongly favors Black (but I’m putting this line of research on hold because I’m currently playing a Game Courier game with this opening).