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First move advantage in Western Chess - why does it exist?[Subject Thread] [Add Response]

Joe Joyce wrote on Tue, Aug 7, 2012 06:05 PM UTC:

Jorg, Derek, thanks for the answers. To clarify completely, I am looking
only at the FIDE game, and the statistics are very roughly: white wins 36%
of the games, black wins 28%, and that leaves 38% draws. So, discarding
draws, which make up 3/8ths of the total games, white wins about 4 games to
black's 3, roughly 30% more wins. This is from the previously-mentioned
Wikipedia article, as is a substantial advantage for white, translating
into an overall points total of 54% vs. blacks 46%. With the very best
players, white's total % goes to 55. Neither tempo nor choosing the
initial direction of the game is, i feel, enough to account for this in
what by ll accounts is a drawn game with perfect play.

HG, what are your numbers again for a one-pawn ad? Ralph Betza's
guesstimate  looks in the ballpark, based on what happens to that first
turn ad by mid-game. It becomes pretty invisible. But then in the final
stats, it shows up with a vengeance. My instincts are that there has to be
more to it than "choosing the initial direction of the game" for such a
diverse outcome between black and white.