Single Comment

First move advantage in Western Chess - why does it exist?[Subject Thread] [Add Response]

Joe Joyce wrote on Wed, Sep 5, 2012 04:09 PM UTC:

Derek, that's an interesting little bit of figuring. And your win %ages
throw a stronger light on the problem. With a 55% - 45% white ad, white
wins an excess of 22%. Figure ~ 38% draws - Derek, are there more stats
available from those datasets? - and knock 19% off each number, to get an
estimate of the pure won-loss stats, and you get 36 - 26, or about a 38%
excess of white wins over black wins, a + 1/3rd to + 2/5ths range for 1st
move ad. 

Here's a question: what are the average lengths of white victories vs
black victories [vs draws]? Does white win faster than black? Or to put it
the other way, does black need extra moves to win to make up for white's
advantage? [And how do draws compare? Does that tell us anything?]

As for the most important moves in a game, hasn't it been your experience
that in decently-played games, there are usually a few turning points? I
wouldn't think the first or the last move would be *the* most important. I
would expect maybe half-a-dozen moves or more to be of roughly equal
importance, anyway.